SEA LEVEL RISE???
Numerous options have been proposed that would assist island nations to adapt to rising sea level.
As last week tides burst through sea walls, briefly cutting a key access road to Jakarta’s international airport, some predictions for Indonesia if sea levels rise, From the UN climate change conference on Bali:
• Jakarta airport to be under water by 2035.
• about 25% of Jakarta will vanish by 2050.
• Surabaya and Semarang will be almost permanently flooded by 2080.
• the capital will have to be moved to Bandung.
• 2,000 islands will be lost by 2030.
• 400,000 sq km of land mass lost by 2080, including about 10% of Papua, and 5% of both Java and Sumatra (on the north coast).
Says Nicholas Stern, author of the Stern Report on climate change (2006):
Island states are very vulnerable to sea level rise and very vulnerable to storms. Indonesia is particularly vulnerable.
Environment Minister Rachmat Witoelar raised fears of chaos:
Tens of millions of people would have to move out of their homes. There is no way this will happen without conflict. The cost would be very high. Imagine, it’s not just about building better infrastructure, but we’d have to relocate people and change the way people live.
According to a U.N. climate report, temperatures are likely to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Celsius (2.0 and 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit) and sea levels by between 18 cm and 59 cm (seven and 23 inches) within this century.
Based on research sea levels estimation would rise by an average of 0.5cm a year until 2080, while the submersion rate in Jakarta, which lies just above sea level, would be higher at 0.87 cm a year.
Indonesia would become poorer due to loss of islands, because access to mineral resources would become more difficult, or impossible, he said, with 5% being shaved off annual GDP, before even taking into account the loss of property and jobs as millions move from low-lying coastal areas to cities and towns on higher ground.
An IIED study said that there are about 42 million people in Indonesia living in areas less than 10 meters above the average sea level, who could be acutely affected by rising sea levels.
A separate study by the United Nations Environment Programme in 1992 showed in two districts in Java alone, rising waters could deprive more than 81,000 farmers of their rice fields or prawn and fish ponds, while 43,000 farm labourers would lose their job.
Study on mean sea level (MSL) rise has been done on tide data at some locations in the Western Indonesia. To account the effect of climate change, air temperature analysis from some weather stations are also performed. The results showed that air temperature has changed between 0.0 to 0.44 °C per ten years. The sea level analysis showed that mean sea level at Western Indonesia rise between 3.10 to 9.27 mm per year. Based on the results, the prediction on mean sea level change in the years of 2000, 2030, 2050 and 2100 for Cirebon location are 17 cm, 39 cm, 55 cm, and 92 cm, respectively.
The world is irrefutably warming and the panel predicted a rise of 1 to 3 degrees Celsius over the next century that could lead to the inundation of coasts and islands inhabited by millions of people all over the world including Jakarta.
Sea-level rise is not the only threat to the vulnerability of Jakarta due to the climate change. February's floods in Jakarta which inundated more than 70 percent of Jakarta and sent about 450,000 fleeing their homes is strong evidence that torrential rain could be a serious threat for Jakarta. Bigger storms make Jakarta which lies in the lowlands, near the sea, and is crossed by 13 rivers flowing down from the south even more vulnerable.
Numerous options have been proposed that would assist island nations to adapt to rising sea level.
As last week tides burst through sea walls, briefly cutting a key access road to Jakarta’s international airport, some predictions for Indonesia if sea levels rise, From the UN climate change conference on Bali:
• Jakarta airport to be under water by 2035.
• about 25% of Jakarta will vanish by 2050.
• Surabaya and Semarang will be almost permanently flooded by 2080.
• the capital will have to be moved to Bandung.
• 2,000 islands will be lost by 2030.
• 400,000 sq km of land mass lost by 2080, including about 10% of Papua, and 5% of both Java and Sumatra (on the north coast).
Says Nicholas Stern, author of the Stern Report on climate change (2006):
Island states are very vulnerable to sea level rise and very vulnerable to storms. Indonesia is particularly vulnerable.
Environment Minister Rachmat Witoelar raised fears of chaos:
Tens of millions of people would have to move out of their homes. There is no way this will happen without conflict. The cost would be very high. Imagine, it’s not just about building better infrastructure, but we’d have to relocate people and change the way people live.
According to a U.N. climate report, temperatures are likely to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Celsius (2.0 and 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit) and sea levels by between 18 cm and 59 cm (seven and 23 inches) within this century.
Based on research sea levels estimation would rise by an average of 0.5cm a year until 2080, while the submersion rate in Jakarta, which lies just above sea level, would be higher at 0.87 cm a year.
Indonesia would become poorer due to loss of islands, because access to mineral resources would become more difficult, or impossible, he said, with 5% being shaved off annual GDP, before even taking into account the loss of property and jobs as millions move from low-lying coastal areas to cities and towns on higher ground.
An IIED study said that there are about 42 million people in Indonesia living in areas less than 10 meters above the average sea level, who could be acutely affected by rising sea levels.
A separate study by the United Nations Environment Programme in 1992 showed in two districts in Java alone, rising waters could deprive more than 81,000 farmers of their rice fields or prawn and fish ponds, while 43,000 farm labourers would lose their job.
Study on mean sea level (MSL) rise has been done on tide data at some locations in the Western Indonesia. To account the effect of climate change, air temperature analysis from some weather stations are also performed. The results showed that air temperature has changed between 0.0 to 0.44 °C per ten years. The sea level analysis showed that mean sea level at Western Indonesia rise between 3.10 to 9.27 mm per year. Based on the results, the prediction on mean sea level change in the years of 2000, 2030, 2050 and 2100 for Cirebon location are 17 cm, 39 cm, 55 cm, and 92 cm, respectively.
The world is irrefutably warming and the panel predicted a rise of 1 to 3 degrees Celsius over the next century that could lead to the inundation of coasts and islands inhabited by millions of people all over the world including Jakarta.
Sea-level rise is not the only threat to the vulnerability of Jakarta due to the climate change. February's floods in Jakarta which inundated more than 70 percent of Jakarta and sent about 450,000 fleeing their homes is strong evidence that torrential rain could be a serious threat for Jakarta. Bigger storms make Jakarta which lies in the lowlands, near the sea, and is crossed by 13 rivers flowing down from the south even more vulnerable.
By: Ratih Fitria Putri
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